Pick #7

[Peter (Swamp Dragons)]

I'm drafting from the #7 position in a 10team league with some guys from my town.
Who do you guys think will be available in the first round at #7?
I'm not used to drafting from the middle.
6 pts per TD, non ppr. mostly regular scoring.
Who would you guys take?

[Deleted]

assuming LT, AP, Addai, SJ and Westbrook go in the first five picks, youll be looking at guys like Barber, Portis, Gore, Lynch, Brady or Moss. im not a big fan of drafting a QB or WR in the first, so personally id go with best available RB, but i guess that also depends on league scoring and starting requirements.

[Neil (OC Outlaws)]

Concur with untouchables. I'd target Portis or Lynch at this pick as they provide more value to me than Gore. LJ scares with a terrible O-Line and word out of the 49ers is that they look "awful" per M. Martz.

Personally, I'd pick Portis as I think he'll score 12-15 TD's with at least 1,500 total yards this year. Then I'd double back and take an RB or Moss/TO/Edwards; no other WR or QB is worthy of your 2nd round pick at your slot in a 10 team league.

Good luck

[slackers]

If I were you I'd have to give some thought to Brady all TDs worth 6 and no PPR. I would understand if you took a RB that you had your heart set on but if your on the fence I'd at least think about Brady at 7, with a 10 team league you could still get a really good RB in the second.


PS
I think Brady Will Throw 35-39 TDs and close to 4000 yards witch would lead your league in scoring hands down..... Lets just say he throws 30 td and thats double what the Outlaws think Portis will score.......I'd really consider Brady...

[Neil (OC Outlaws)]

Aug 4, 2008 13:34:12 GMT -6 @slackers said:

If I were you I'd have to give some thought to Brady all TDs worth 6 and no PPR. I would understand if you took a RB that you had your heart set on but if your on the fence I'd at least think about Brady at 7, with a 10 team league you could still get a really good RB in the second.


PS
I think Brady Will Throw 35-39 TDs and close to 4000 yards witch would lead your league in scoring hands down..... Lets just say he throws 30 td and thats double what the Outlaws think Portis will score.......I'd really consider Brady...

Using a VBD worst starter method approach would yield about +/- 20TD and 3000 yds guy for a 10-team league (N=10) for QB's. That's a delta of 10 TD's and 1000 yds or 100 pts/16 games = 6.7 pts/game.

The difference between Portis (RB7)and the worst starter (N=26 for 10 team 2 RB league; the numbers will only favor Portis more if flex players are used) is about +/- 10TD's (15-5) and 700 yds (1500 - 800) or 130pts/16games = 8.1 pts/game.

That's a net loss of 1.4 pts/game.

In other words in 10 team leagues QB's have less relative value because there are only 10 starting QB's and 32 NFL teams. Whereas RB's have more value. A baseline value of 26 (meaning 26th ranked RB) is used for comparison. There are only 32 starting RB's. If this were a 12 or 14 team league then Brady will most likely have more relative value or if 2 starting QB's were allowed.

Before we can really evaluate/debate this topic further it must be know what the starting requirements and scoring system is for this league. The responses so far have not taken this into account.

[Peter (Swamp Dragons)]

here is the scoring..
Scoring for Offensive Categories
FG - Field Goals 3 points
Plus 2 points for a FG of 50+ Yds

FL - Fumble Lost, Including ST plays -2 points
Pa2P - Passing Two-point Conversion 2 points
PaInt - Passing Interception -2 points
PaTD - Passing TD 6 points
PaYd - Passing Yards 0+ PaYds = 1 point for every 25 PaYds

Re2P - Receiving Two-point Conversion 2 points
ReTD - Receiving TD 6 points
ReYd - Receiving Yards 0+ ReYds = 1 point for every 10 ReYds

Ru2P - Rushing Two-point Conversion 2 points
RuTD - Rushing TD 6 points
RuYd - Rushing Yards 0+ RuYds = 1 point for every 10 RuYds

XP - Extra Points 1 point


Scoring for Defensive Categories
DFR - Defensive/ST Fumble Recovered (ID/DT/DST) 2 points
DTD - Total Defensive and Special Teams TD 6 points
Int - Interceptions 2 points
PA - Points Against, Total Points Scored 0 - 6 PA = 8 points
7 - 13 PA = 6 points
14 - 20 PA = 4 points
21 - 27 PA = 2 points

SACK - Sack 1 point
STY - Safety 2 points
YDS - Yards Allowed 0 - 49 YDSs = 12 points
50 - 99 YDSs = 10 points
100 - 149 YDSs = 8 points
150 - 199 YDSs = 6 points
200 - 249 YDSs = 4 points
250 - 299 YDSs = 2 points


Starting Lineups: QB1, RB2, WR3, TE1, K1, DST1

Very vanilla...

[slackers]

Outlaws as I said before I would understand If he took a RB at the 7th position But You would have to consider BRADY.. I also use the VBDs worst starter method....But the problem with the VBD is you better nail your projections if you rank Portis 7th and he really proforms at RB 10 your whole theory is off. Did the VBD tell you that BRADY would out score every QB by 100 points last year, NO cause the VBD is based on the past 3 years and is not up with the infrequences that occur year to year...

[Neil (OC Outlaws)]

IMO Brady will return to earth and there is no discernable difference between Manning, Brady, Romo and Brees. I do however think there is a noticable difference between Portis and the likes of LJ, Gore and Barber.

My opinion only, I go with Portis and then consider grabbing one of the RB's or QB's noted in this post or Moss/TO/Edwards.

That's all. My opinion only and I'm done with the debate. I wouldn't laugh or give someone crap though if they took Brady in the 7th slot. Its reasonable...I just wouldn't do it for the reasons I've noted.

[Peter (Swamp Dragons)]

That's what I like to hear... a healthy discusion.
I'm afraid of Portis. There is something about him that scares me. it is a foolish fear considering I have never had him on ANY of my teams. Man, i'm weird.

There is no way I'm taking Brady in the first...I swore off QB's in the first round after taking Bulger in my Keeper league. Finished 3rd from the bottom after having mid-range QB's and winning.

[slackers]

Well how do you like that Outlaws Swamp isnt gonna use either of our Projected players.....All that for nothing...... Good show OC.



Would some one give a good karma so I'm not the ass hole of the bunch.....I look like a jerk with the -1 beside my name.....

[Neil (OC Outlaws)]

Aug 4, 2008 15:44:45 GMT -6 @slackers said:

Well how do you like that Outlaws Swamp isnt gonna use either of our Projected players.....All that for nothing...... Good show OC.



Would some one give a good karma so I'm not the ass hole of the bunch.....I look like a jerk with the -1 beside my name.....

Done!! ;D

[Neil (OC Outlaws)]

Aug 4, 2008 15:44:45 GMT -6 @slackers said:

Well how do you like that Outlaws Swamp isnt gonna use either of our Projected players.....All that for nothing...... Good show OC.



Would some one give a good karma so I'm not the ass hole of the bunch.....I look like a jerk with the -1 beside my name.....

Perhaps he should listen be more willing to listen?? Wonder who he's taking?

[Peter (Swamp Dragons)]

I'm listening...There is a good possibility that Portis will be on my team for the first time. Also i suspect the wackos I'm drafting with will pick Brady by the #4 or 5 pick. I have a feeling Addai will fall to me...I hope.

[Neil (OC Outlaws)]

Now that would be a complete no-brainer. Addai is inarguably a top 5 back in any conceivable format.

[johnboora]

Addai was the 7th pick in a league that we drafted last week so it might not be that crazy for him to fall to you.